(1) Overview of the Global Photovoltaic Industry Development in 2024
In 2024, driven by the demand from the global application market, the global photovoltaic production scale further expanded. Chinese photovoltaic enterprises, leveraging their advantages in crystalline silicon technology and cost control, continuously released low-cost advanced production capacity. In the manufacturing sector, except for the proportion of the silicon wafer link slightly decreasing compared to last year, the global market share of capacity and output in other links remained basically stable or achieved varying degrees of growth. China continued to maintain its central position in the global photovoltaic industry.
Many countries around the world have set the climate goal of "carbon neutrality", and the development of renewable energy sources, including photovoltaic power, has become a global consensus, driving the global photovoltaic market to maintain a high growth rate. In 2024, the global photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 530 GW, setting a new historical record, with the cumulative installed capacity reaching 2,076 GW.
(II) Overview of China's Photovoltaic Industry Development in 2024
In 2024, China's new installed capacity of photovoltaic power reached 277.57 GW, increasing by 28.3% year-on-year, equivalent to the cumulative installed capacity from 2010 to 2020 over 11 years. In terms of cumulative installed capacity, the growth rate has continued to double every two years, with the cumulative installed capacity doubling on average every 2 to 3 years. There have been significant changes in the structure of new installations. In terms of centralized photovoltaic installations, benefiting from the construction and grid connection of the first batch of large-scale bases during the 14th Five-Year Plan, centralized photovoltaic has developed rapidly in recent years, with its proportion continuously rising and surpassing that of distributed photovoltaic. In terms of commercial and industrial distributed photovoltaic installations, the proportion has slightly rebounded in 2024. As for residential distributed photovoltaic installations, affected by the adjustment of subsidy policies and difficulties in local consumption, its proportion has continued to decline.
From the manufacturing perspective, despite the adverse effects of supply chain price fluctuations, a complex and severe external environment, and increased uncertainties, in 2024, the output of all links in China's photovoltaic manufacturing sector still maintained a year-on-year growth rate of over 16%. In terms of photovoltaic product exports, the trend of "increased volume but reduced price" continued.
While achieving significant accomplishments, the photovoltaic industry in 2024 also confronts an unoptimistic supply and demand situation. The prices of products at all stages have dropped significantly compared to the beginning of the year, with declines of 40%, 50%, and 40% respectively for polysilicon, silicon wafers, and solar cells. For the component stage that targets terminal applications, the average bidding and winning prices of central and state-owned enterprises' photovoltaic component procurement have rapidly declined in line with the price levels of the entire industrial chain since the beginning of 2024, stabilizing somewhat after October. With the rapid fall in photovoltaic industrial chain prices, the profit margins of enterprises have been severely compressed, and some small and medium-sized enterprises have declared bankruptcy. The situation in the main industrial chain is even more severe, with both operating income and net profit declining, and the debt-to-asset ratio is also not optimistic. If market demand does not recover in time or the price war continues, it may lead to the breakage of some enterprises' capital chains, triggering a chain reaction in the industry. It is suggested that enterprises should strengthen cash flow management, optimize supply chain cooperation, and accelerate technological innovation to enhance market competitiveness.
(III) Outlook on Development Trends in 2025
According to the "Renewables 2024: Analysis and Forecasts to 2030" report released by the IEA in October 2024, from 2024 to 2030, the newly installed capacity will exceed 5,500 GW, and 80% of the global new clean energy installed capacity will come from solar energy.
According to the data released by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the global photovoltaic new installation capacity in 2024 is approximately 530 GW, representing a year-on-year growth of 35.9% compared to 2023. In the future, driven by favorable factors such as the continuous decline in photovoltaic power generation costs and the global green recovery, the global photovoltaic new installation capacity will continue to grow. It is estimated that the global new installation capacity in 2025 will range from 531 to 583 GW, and the global photovoltaic installed capacity will continue to increase.
The current global trade environment is facing severe challenges. Chinese enterprises' overseas layout should pay attention to strategy and flexibility. First, they should focus on China's diplomatic strategy. They should pay particular attention to the objects of China's capital export and fully leverage the favorable environment for China's external cooperation and development, such as the Belt and Road Initiative, APEC, and the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation. Second, they should promote overseas expansion through the linkage of upstream and downstream industries. For instance, overseas project development and construction can drive the export of products, cooperation among enterprises in the industrial chain can promote overseas expansion, and overseas investment and construction can drive the export of products, standards, testing, and certification services. Third, they should adopt diversified overseas production capacity layout strategies. This can be achieved by diversifying the layout regions, carefully judging the scale of industrial layout, and diversifying the operation models to disperse overseas expansion risks.
