In its recently published *Electricity Mid-Year Update 2025* report, the agency noted regarding power generation: "Depending on weather conditions and economic development, renewable energy generation could overtake coal-fired generation as early as 2025 or 2026. Coal's share in the total power mix is expected to fall below 33% for the first time in a century."
The International Energy Agency (IEA) highlighted that solar and wind power are the primary drivers behind the growth in renewable energy. Their combined share in global electricity generation is projected to rise from 15% in 2024 to 17% in 2025 and exceed 19% by 2026. Just a decade ago, their share stood at only 4%.
According to the IEA's estimates, hydropower accounts for 14% of the global energy mix. Considering the impact of droughts, hydropower generation is expected to remain relatively stable this year, with a projected growth of 2% next year.
The IEA also forecasts an average annual growth of 2% in nuclear power generation between 2025 and 2026. Meanwhile, natural gas-based electricity generation is expected to grow by 1.3% in both 2025 and 2026.
At the same time, global coal-fired generation is expected to decline by 0.5% this year, driven by reductions in coal power output in China and Europe. However, this decrease will be partially offset by increases in the United States, India, and other Asian countries. The IEA predicts that coal-fired generation will fall by approximately 1.3% in 2026, owing to continued growth in low-emission power generation and a stronger shift from coal to natural gas.
