According to data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 49.5% in June 2025, up by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. This marks the second consecutive month of growth, though the index remains below the 50% mark. By region, the manufacturing PMI for Asia stayed above 50%, rising for two consecutive months; Africa's manufacturing PMI increased by 1 percentage point, climbing to above 49%; the Americas' manufacturing PMI saw a slight uptick but remained below 49%; Europe's manufacturing PMI edged higher, staying above 48% for the fourth consecutive month.
Considering the overall index trends, global manufacturing continued to operate in contraction territory in June 2025. However, the consecutive slight increases suggest a strengthening momentum in the recovery of global manufacturing. During the suspension of the U.S. tariff hikes, countries worldwide demonstrated a strong willingness to accelerate economic recovery.
Amid uncertainties surrounding the potential resumption of U.S. tariff policies and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, the global economic recovery continues to face downward pressure. The World Bank's latest Global Economic Prospects report has revised down the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.7% in January to 2.3%. The consensus among nations is that the future is fraught with uncertainty. What remains certain is that while the path of globalization may adjust due to various unpredictable factors, the broader direction of globalization-characterized by inclusivity, and innovation-will not change.
Manufacturing in the Americas remained in contraction territory, with PMI showing a slight increase: In June 2025, the manufacturing PMI for the Americas was 48.6%, up by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. This marks the fourth consecutive month below 49%, indicating that manufacturing in the Americas remains in contraction with weak recovery momentum. Data from major countries show that the U.S. manufacturing PMI rose slightly but remained below 50% for the fourth consecutive month; Colombia's manufacturing PMI declined but stayed above 50%; Brazil, Canada, and Mexico saw their manufacturing PMI decrease to varying degrees, all remaining below 50%.
Business surveys indicate that the uncertainty surrounding potential U.S. tariff hikes has adversely affected American manufacturing enterprises in terms of demand, costs, and raw material inventories. If the U.S. chooses to resume imposing additional tariffs after the suspension period, it would not only negatively impact global economic recovery but also exacerbate inflationary pressures and hinder economic recovery in the United States.
